Foresight

"I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity." — Dwight David Eisenhower

Hindsight may be 20/20 but decent foresight is infinite. A very decent man E-mailed me something that he wrote in 2002.

Reasons for Thinking More Carefully About Invading Iraq

I am not a political scientist, economist or military strategist, but I am a loyal and enthusiastic citizen of the United States, I have eyes and ears and, I think, a little common sense. And since we the people are supposed to be able to contribute to the discussion, I want to say that I think invading Iraq would be crazy, and the following are my reasons why.

1. We are the Superpower. But true superiority is measured not in megatons but in capacity for humanity, fairness and restraint.

2. Once again, we have older, privileged men (largely), personally inexperienced in war combat, wanting to send young, less privileged people to fight and die.

3. If the Arab and/or Islamic world turns hard against us, we will experience an energy crisis beyond historical precedent and beyond present imagination. It does not take diplomatic rocket science to project that. And it does not take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that shortages will result in untold wealth for energy people here in the United States, a constituency amply represented in our current administration.

4. Nobody likes Saddam Hussein, and that may be the basis of a good sound bite, but personalizing a problem does not solve it, and solving our issues with Iraq involves a lot more that getting rid of Saddam.

5. The present regime in Iraq is clearly horrible and dangerous, but the solution has to involve denying them support. Yet everything we have been doing lately seems to be gaining them allies.

6. We have more military might than everybody else, but modern guerilla warfare and recent terrorist events should be teaching us that military might is no longer synonymous with effective military power.

7. If I were going to personalize and caricature the problem, I would portray Cheney and Rumsfield as spoiled, rich preppies who want to re-fight the Bush, Sr. war using other people’s kids and money — and Bush, Jr. as perhaps a nice guy but in way over his head.

8. The long-term solution to our energy problem involves becoming much less dependant on oil. At best, we have taken only baby steps in this direction, and under the present administration, we have gone backwards.

9. The solution to our international crisis involves creating better relationships with Arabs and Muslims all over the world, relationships based on mutual respect. Cynicism about American intentions among these people is based on plenty of shameful history, which can be undone only by patient, honest trust-building. It is a long-term project, but if we don’t begin right now, it will take even longer. Such an effort has to find its beginning in being scrupulously fair in our dealings with Palestinians. To be sure, Yassir Arafat has lost a lot of personal credibility with almost everyone, and extremist Palestinians, like extremist Jews, have done everything they could to scuttle peace efforts. But most Muslims seem to think that we are toadying to Ariel Sharon, whom they consider to be a terrible butcher, and it is not too hard to figure out how they got that idea.

10. The last time we went to war in a big way was the Gulf War, and if that was as effective as it is touted to be, why are we in the position we are in now? The same people want to manage this war. Now we read that during the Reagan administration when this same crowd was running things, we were providing means for biological warfare to Iraq to be used against Iran. And now the same crowd wants us to trust them to send our children and grandchildren to war? We need to think about this some more.

Our leaders are finally going to the United Nations and the U.S. Congress, but only because forced to by national and international public opinion. They do not seem to want to hear from we the people, this being America not withstanding, but I nonetheless need to say that I think that what they are planning is going to result in just about everything we do not want.